PS - Though Weak Display, What Did I Say In That Post On Sunday?

 

... mind you, written before Iran attacked our largest military base in Qatar?

I said that $400 million jet Qatar gave Trump (that came with expectations) is a factor and there is more going on with Trump's decisions than just Israel - because there is a difference between Middle Eastern Muslim governments by country, Sunni or Shia (Shiite)  - and these differences keep them from being an allied Palestinian alliance front against Israel, as both branches want control over the other first. 

For the differences between Sunni and Shia Muslims and which countries' governments are which, read the post below.

But as quick reference, Iran is Shia -  Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are Sunni.

It's not that I'm psychic, or particularly smart -  it's just that we, as a people, MUST stop drinking all the political propaganda Kool-Aid and understand for ourselves the cultural, religious, linguistic, and socioeconomic differences between groups of people, because politicians aren't going to help us with that.

They're just going to continue to fear-monger and blanket-generalize along racial, religious, or political lines to further their own political agendas - the political right especially using this tactic.

This, despite the fact that it has never been more clear than now that they, themselves, DO actually differentiate between Muslim groups, actually favoring Sunni Muslims over Shia Muslims. 

Then despite what JD Vance and Pete Hegseth said - that this was NOT an attempt at regime change -  Trump opened his big fat mouth and said that it actually was (preferably to a more Sunni-friendly leadership or actual Sunni control, hmm, Trump?)

Though Iran's response was weak, it was meant to be -  more like a display, a message: 

"We see you, Sunnis. We know wassup with that obligation-gift jet. We know you're pissed over Syria and want Sunni control, and you have more money and might, but are you really going to choose Israel over us?"

Then considering Iran announced a cease-fire today, the Sunni governments said:

Yeah, um ... so we're not going to choose between you, you're on your own. We could ... but we will not." 

So if it helps, imagine it's like this.

Imagine that US Protestants said "We're going to attack Washington DC. They want us to share control with other faiths or even no faith! That means we'd have to give up some control! They're favoring non-Christians and persecuting us! So we're going to attack to gain control back!. Crusader Catholics, are you with us?

And then the US Catholics said "Erm - no, not like this. We think we'll sit this one out, thanks. But have fun storming the Capitol!"  😂

That's completely oversimplifying everything and not an exact analogy, a rather lame one actually  - because the persecution isn't imaginary in Israel,  on BOTH sides - so I DO apologize, it just the closest American analogy I could think of quickly! 

Now, Iran does have the choice of running to Russia or China or North Korea for help, because it has loose military alliances with them, but those countries are likely too smart to get involved in this regional conflict, at least at this juncture. 

They do need oil in the region, of course, but again, that is largely controlled by Sunni countries.

Since WWI, people don't like being dragged into wars that start over regional political conflict, especially now that nuclear weapons are involved. 

But ya know, never say never. 

If Russia did, they don't do sh*t for free and they like territory control, so Putin would likely say "Okay - but your people are mine, now, MY soldiers, and they're going to the Ukraine next" - which I doubt Iran would ever agree to.

Of course, I have no crystal ball and I can't predict what will happen next.

Cease-fires may happen ... and yet Middle Eastern governments do not forget.  

They have the reputation for holding grudges for long periods of time and being especially patient with acting on those grudges, sometimes even years later. 

So we shall see ...