My Picks for the Kentucky Derby

 

Happy Almost Derby Day!

We haven't followed as much, this year, but here are my picks anyway? 

First keep in mind, I don't have the intuition I used to have on these - that went away with menopause? 😂

So this is just based on trainers, jockeys, sire/dam, winning record- and in the case of Doug O'Neill, Mark's friend and a great guy - even if a long shot, we always bet on a Doug O'Neill horse. 

Also keep in mind, we NEVER bet on Bob Baffert horses.

Yeah, he's allowed back now. 🙁

Yes, he wins a lot -  but over 20 horses have died under his care in the last decade, he cheats by  illegally and dangerously medicating the horses (thus his suspension), instructs his jockeys to race dirty/injure, and we met him and I can confirm he's a HUGE A-hole.

So ... if I bet, I would do "Renegade" in an Across The Board bet.

This means Renegade can come in in any order (Win, Place, or Show or 1st, 2nd, or 3rd).

You won't win a lot of money that way, because he's the favorite with 4-1 odds, but barring some disaster out of the gate or during the race - you will win.

He's the favorite - for good reason - and it's NOT just because it's a cool name (though it is).

It's because you could not have engineered a more perfect horse or perfect situation. 

Todd Pletcher is the trainer, Irad Ortiz is the jockey, his sire and dam (parents) are proven winners, he won the Arkansas Derby - and best of all, he drew the #1 post position, which many say is the best possible position you can be in, because it means closest to the fence and thus the shortest run.

HOWEVER, it CAN result in the horse being "boxed in" by the other horses, and the other jockeys will try, but Ortiz and Pletcher have already planned for that, rest assured.

Also, he looks hand-sculpted specifically for racing  - this is one elegant horse!

Sleek front, but big, powerful hindquarters - this horse is perfectly "built" for speed.

(His delicate legs DO worry me a bit, especially his cannons, for easy fracture, especially his front cannons - but so far, so good.)

On paper, this horse should win - but as we know, things can happen, so we shall see!

I would also place a Trifecta Box - meaning the top 3 horses, but in any order (versus a straight Trifecta  alone, which is exact order).

Those 3 horses I would pick for my Trifecta Box (top 3, but in any order), are the following:

1. Renegade - Todd Pletcher,trainer; Irad Ortiz, jockey; Into Mischief, sire; Spice Is Nice (Curlin mare), dam, #1 post position - 4-1 odds.

 

2. So Happy - Mark Glatt, trainer (newcomer), Mike Smith, jockey (jockey legend, most winning jockey in the last 25 years); Run Happy, sire; So Cunning, mare - 15-1 odds. 

 

3. Pavlovian - Doug O'Neill, trainer (and Mark's friend); Edwin Maldonado, jockey; Pavel, sire; Mandy's Grace, dam  - 30-1 odds.

Now, common sense would tell me to place a bet on a Brad Cox horse or a Bob Baffert horse as well, of course, and if I really want to win over ethics, I would.

However, I've already told you why I don't support Bob Baffert.

So why these 3, you ask?

So I've already touted the wonders of Renegade.

So Happy - partially because of his sire, Run Happy -  but MOSTLY because you NEVER bet against Mike Smith, the winningest jockey in the last 25 years.

Also, Mike Smith avoids whipping the horses, he whips his boot instead or waves his whip in the air. 

(I used to say he "never" whipped his horses, but Bob Baffert insisted he whip Justify. Further proof as to what kind of person Bob Baffert is - AND note that Mike Smith doesn't ride for him anymore.)

Pavlovian - besides being a cool name, Doug O'Neill is a friend of Mark's and he really is a great guy (see prior stories on this blog about that, as well as a personal story about the A-hole that is Bob Baffert). Doug O'Neill also tries to instruct his jockeys to not whip the horse, whip the boot instead or wave in the air.

Despite being a long shot, we always bet on a Doug O'Neill horse regardless.

Plus it's not like he doesn't have a winning track record as well - Doug has won the Derby previously with "I'll Have Another" in 2012 and "Nyquist" in 2016.

(If you're interested, one of Nyquist's sons is also racing, but it's a Bob Baffert horse, so not going to give him any accolade - you can look that up yourself. 😂)

Happy Run for the Roses!